Israeli Politics

RISHON LEZION, Israel – Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni would likely become the next prime minister if elections were held today:

The poll predicted that with Livni leading Kadima the party would receive 27 seats in the Knesset, as opposed to 23 for Likud and 15 for Labor. According to the study, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz would garner 17 seats as head of the party and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit would tally only 13.

I think I was wrong. Since I moved here in January, I had believed that Israeli politics had moved from the center-left to the center-right. (See here for my definitions.) A slim majority of Israelis had supported former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s move to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. However, I had thought that the resulting rocket attacks from there since Hamas took over had moved Israelis to the right (the Israeli public would never withdraw from additional territory again until all Palestinians cease their attacks). Prior polls showing that the right-wing Likud Party would win the next election had seemed to confirm my view.

So this latest poll was quite a shock: The centrist Kadima party would win if Livni were its leader. From this, we can conclude that the Israeli public has not undergone a significant political shift. The opposition to Kadima – or the popularity of Likud, in other words — has not been the result of ideological differences, but personal ones. Israelis do not like Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. If people are asked to choose a party, Likud wins. But if people are asked to choose a person, Kadima wins. This is telling.

And Livni may become the prime minister sooner than we think: Olmert is in trouble (again).