The Lost Generation

The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development sees the profound problems facing young Americans:

The current major economic downturn has brought about a significant worsening in the labour market performance of US youth. In the two years to September 2009, the employment rate of youth aged 16-24 fell by 7 percentage points to 46% and their unemployment rate rose by 7 percentage points to 18%. Despite talk that the worst of the recession may be over, there is little doubt that its labour market consequences will persist over the coming quarters.

Evidence from the aftermath of the early 2000s slowdown in the United States casts doubts on how quickly the youth labour market is likely to recover from the current deep recession. Indeed, in 2007, the labour market performance of youth still stood significantly below its 2000 level. The youth employment rate was 53% in 2007 compared with 60% in 2000; the youth unemployment rate, at 11%, was about 1 percentage point higher than its 2000 level…

In 2008, the incidence of long-term unemployment among youth in the United States was 7.1% versus an OECD average of 18.5% (Figure 1.7). This incidence increased over the past decade from 4.9% in 1998 whereas it declined for the OECD average. In particular, the incidence of long-term unemployment rose by 0.6 percentage points between 2007 and 2008 as a result of the ongoing economic crisis.

Any young person out of college and in his twenties — and perhaps even in his thirties — can tell you plenty of stories. The entire generation is generally upset, and rightly so. Here is what the OECD recommends that the U.S. government do:

• Temporarily relax unemployment benefit eligibility criteria for youths with some work experience, but apply strict job-search requirements;
• Expand existing early-childhood education programmes and provide more support for parents and children when they go to primary school;
• Extend vocational training by rolling out nationwide Career Academies, small learning establishments within high schools combining academic and technical education;
• Broaden the role of the Office of Apprenticeships to include funding responsibilities and introduce subsidies and sub minimum wages for apprentices in order to promote the use of apprenticeships in SMEs and for teenagers and at risk youths;
• Favour summer jobs programmes for at risk youths who are still at school;
• Expand the Job Corps programme for young adults and encourage teenagers to stay on the programme longer and do more vocational training.

I especially like the recommendation to increase the level of vocational training in the United States. The days when a person can earn a comfortable salary with benefits and a pension by being a cubicle-dweller are over. Those jobs can be outsourced — a plumber or auto mechanic cannot. A liberal-arts education is wonderful for a brain, but it no longer guarantees a good job. (See here, here, and here.)

The Economist’s Free Exchange blog is sympathetic, but it prescribes the wrong solution:

The broader point [of the data], I think, is that sustained, high levels of youth unemployment can lead to serious problems, including rising levels of crime, nationalism and economic populism, and lower growth potential as a generation of underemployed workers makes its way through the workforce. The cost-benefit analysis for generous assistance to young workers would seem to be pretty favourable, particularly if that assistance includes incentives to obtain more education.

The solution is not to send even more people to college — it is to help those who did go to college, took out tens of thousands of dollars in student loans, and are now close to poverty. Canceling or paying off the country’s student-loan debt would cost the government less than the various bailouts, and it would help the economy immediately by freeing up millions or billions of dollars to be spent on items like, well, homes. Two-thirds of America’s GDP is consumer spending, after all.

As Vox Day notes in a post on recent unemployment statistics:

This is also the result of the higher education bubble. I don’t remember who said it, but he was correct in pointing out that expanding higher education to the masses doesn’t mean that you won’t have sales clerks any more, it simply means that you’ll have sales clerks with PhDs.

Supply and demand. Economies of scale. I could enter any Economics 101 buzzword of choice to state what everyone should already know.

If something is not done to help younger people, the Baby Boomers will be facing intergenerational warfare. And with each passing year, their numbers dwindle even more.

Status of Jerusalem

JERUSALEM — The big news of the day — and it is potentially explosive indeed — is the European Union’s reported endorsement of Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state:

The 27 EU foreign ministers are scheduled to decide Tuesday on the final wording of a statement on the Middle East that may very well include European recognition of east Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

Efforts in Brussels on Monday to get a consensus on the text among the EU ambassadors failed, meaning the foreign ministers themselves will have to delve into the arguments over the text.

One Israeli official said it was very rare for a text this substantial to reach the foreign ministerial level without prior agreement.

The statement, which has just been allegedly passed, somewhat states the obvious since all outside parties have agreed that a two-state solution — Israel and Palestine as two countries next to each other — is the way to peace and have pressed both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority towards that end.

But the devil, so to speak, is in the details. Although the Israeli Foreign Ministry is pleased that the statement purportedly recognizes Israel’s claim to east Jerusalem — the territory was annexed following the Six Day War in 1967 –the office also called for the EU to “promote direct negotiations between the parties, while considering Israel’s security needs and understanding that Israel’s Jewish character must be preserved in any future agreement.” This is an important point: The Palestinians have yet to recognize the existence of Israel as a Jewish state.

Moreover, Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat — a secular, former high-tech businessman who leans right politically — bashed the EU proposal:

In response to the Swedish proposal currently being debated by European Union foreign ministers in Belgium that would declare east Jerusalem the capital of a future Palestinian state, Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat on Monday sent an official letter to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Catherine Ashton, in which he insisted that Jerusalem remain united “as the eternal capital of the State of Israel.”

“Throughout the history of the world, there is not one important city that was divided that functioned successfully,” Barkat wrote. “They either reunited or ceased to function properly. The lesson is too clear. Jerusalem must stay united.”

Barkat added that “division focuses on differences rather than the common denominator that unites people of all faiths,” and identified Jerusalem as “the heart and soul of the Jewish people.”

On a personal note, I can say that the mayor is being consistent. I attended a Q&A with Barkat at a gathering of English-speaking Israelis during the 2008 mayoral campaign, and he said the exact same sentiment. This is also an important point: Can a divided city ever function properly?

It is also hard to imagine the hatred that many Israelis have for Europeans in general, especially following their perceived (rightly or wrongly) support for Hamas during the Gaza conflict late last year:

This [EU statement] is known in the trade as a slap in the face. Since coming to power, Netanyahu’s government eased up on checkpoints and military presence in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, has supported and protected Mahmoud Abbas and his government, have slowed and now frozen virtually all settlement construction while being far more cautious about construction of Jewish homes in Jerusalem as well as destruction of Palestinian homes. In return, Israel has had to swallow the Goldstone Report, the Swedish “IDF Steals Body Parts” attack with no apology from the government and now this…

Europe should really stay out of it. They have done enough damage with their constant funding for NGOs that oppose Israel, for their blind support of the Palestinians and relative silence over Hamas and Gazan attacks on Israeli civilian targets and the constant pressure presented from their courts over potential arrests of Israeli leaders.

This is also an important point. Both Israel and the Palestinians need to respect those who are trying to mediate the conflict. If even one party does not trust the mediator, then negotiations are useless. Europe — except, perhaps, for France ever since the election of President Nicolas Sarkozy –  is perceived by Israelis as being anti-Israel as much as the United States has been seen as being pro-Israel. Can such outsiders ever implement or even produce a peace agreement, or is it something that Israelis and Palestinians can only reach on their own?

Moreover, if the alleged plans to announce a State of Palestine soon with east Jerusalem as its capital occur — as PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyed might be planning — but produce no real results, will that lead to a third intifada and a return to Square One?

Islamic Call to Prayer

JERUSALEM — Jewish residents of the Holy City are becoming increasingly annoyed by the five-times-a-day calls to prayer broadcast by local mosques:

While recent rioting in and around Jerusalem’s Old City has left religious tensions between the capital’s Muslims and Jews simmering, a new dispute – this time concerning the volume of prayers, more than the prayers themselves – is resonating in outlying neighborhoods.

Jewish residents of these areas, all of which are in close proximity to Arab neighborhoods in the capital’s east, have begun to complain that the adhan, or Islamic call to prayer, which is broadcast five times a day from loudspeakers inside local mosques, has become an intolerable nuisance, particularly when it blasts through their neighborhoods at 4 a.m. every day.

“It’s as if they took the speakers and put them inside my bedroom,” Yehudit Raz, a resident of the northeast Pisgat Ze’ev neighborhood, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday. “And it’s not from one mosque or two mosques – we’re talking about tons of speakers going off, one after the other, every morning.”

As with everything in the Middle East, the issue is complicated. Praying at the assigned times is a devout mandate among Muslims, so it is imperative for them that people be reminded to do so. This would not be a problem if the call to prayer could somehow ring only in the ears of believers. But the majority of Jerusalemites — who are mainly Jews but also include some Christians — hear the call as well. So the issue, politically and ethically, is one of competing priorities: the desire to ensure freedom of religion and the desire not to have a religion forced on those who do not believe in it.

Still, Europe is also facing this philosophical dilemma. The historic English city of Oxford has been debating whether to allow the Central Oxford Mosque to broadcast the calls to prayer. Most significantly, a majority of voters in Switzerland recently voted in a referendum to ban the construction of minarets (from which many calls to prayer are broadcast):

Swiss voters on Sunday adopted a referendum banning the construction of minarets, seen by some on the far right as a sign of encroaching Islamism.

“The Federal Council respects this decision,” said a statement from Switzerland’s government. “Consequently the construction of new minarets in Switzerland is no longer permitted. The four existing minarets will remain.

“It will also be possible to continue to construct mosques,” the government statement said. “Muslims in Switzerland are able to practice their religion alone or in community with others, and live according to their beliefs just as before.”

The issue, of course, is similar to that of Christian churches ringing bells every Sunday. When Europe was overwhelmingly Christian for many centuries, this was not a problem. But now I wonder what would happen if a group of non-Christians in Europe or the United States sued to stop the ringing out of the same desire that non-Muslims have to stop the calls to prayer. But the fact remains that Europe has been traditionally Christian. As Ross Douthat notes, the referendum could have occurred anywhere on the continent:

Switzerland isn’t an E.U. member state, but the minaret moment could have happened almost anywhere in Europe nowadays — in France, where officials have floated the possibility of banning the burka; in Britain, which elected two representatives of the fascistic, anti-Islamic British National Party to the European Parliament last spring; in Italy, where a bill introduced this year would ban mosque construction and restrict the Islamic call to prayer.

More and more Europeans are feeling — rightly or not — that their civilization is under attack and in danger of become Islamizied after decades of lax immigration policies. As Douthat observes, this view is both correct and not:

The immigrants came first as guest workers, recruited after World War II to relieve labor shortages, and then as beneficiaries of generous asylum and family reunification laws, designed to salve Europe’s post-colonial conscience. The European elites assumed that the divide between Islam and the West was as antiquated as scimitars and broadswords, and that a liberal, multicultural, post-Christian federation would have no difficulty absorbing new arrivals from more traditional societies…

Millions of Muslims have accepted European norms. But millions have not. This means polygamy in Sweden; radical mosques in Britain’s fading industrial cities; riots over affronts to the Prophet Muhammad in Denmark; and religiously inspired murder in the Netherlands. It means terrorism, and the threat of terrorism, from London to Madrid.

And it means a rising backlash, in which European voters support extreme measures and extremist parties because their politicians don’t seem to have anything to say about the problem.

As I wrote in an earlier post on the philosophical conflict between feminism and multiculturalism in regards to the way that some devout Muslims treat women badly, the solution to the conflict in Europe over the call to prayer in Islam is simply to enforce the law (and enact one beforehand, if necessary). If there are zoning laws or similar ordinances that restrict the broadcasting of noise, enforce them. If not, enact them. Muslims and Christians, for example, may complain about a violation of their religious freedom, but there would be no violation if the law is applied equally and fairly to all religious institutions. For once, the answer is actually quite simple. As my twelfth-grade AP Political Science teacher once put it during a discussion of a U.S. Supreme Court case that denied the right of a Native American tribe to use drugs during a religious ritual, having a religion does not give you the right to break the law.

However, this solution might not work in Jerusalem and elsewhere in Israel. Islam is only religion here that broadcasts matter relating to religious practice, so any laws or ordinances limiting noise might be inherently discriminatory against Muslims. I do not know the solution here.

Addendum: If any of my American readers live near Muslim communities, I am curious: Do you hear the calls to prayer? Are they regulated by zoning or any related ordinances? I used to cover zoning issues when I was a reporter in Boston, so I am curious.

Elsewhere: Daniel Pipes argues that Christians in Arab countries should be treated equally if Muslims in Europe want to be, and he adds that the Swiss referendum could be a bellwether of Islam’s future in Europe.

Israeli Settlements

JERUSALEM — Law professor David M. Phillips sets the historical and legal record straight on how Israeli settlements are not a violation of international law:

Though routinely referred to nowadays as “Palestinian” land, at no point in history has Jerusalem or the West Bank been under Palestinian Arab sovereignty in any sense of the term…

The Ottoman Empire contained the area known as Palestine for hundreds of years. The British Empire defeated the Ottomans, took control of the region, gave the land east of the Jordan River to the future kingdom of Jordan, and offered to split the remaining land west of the Jordan between the Jews and Arabs who were living there. The Arabs west of the Jordan rejected the partition, the British withdrew from the area, Israel declared independence, and then the surrounding Arab countries invaded.

By the end of the 1948 war, Jordan had taken control of the West Bank and east Jerusalem. (The so-called “Green Line” has merely been the dividing line between the Israeli and Jordanian armies at the time the cease-fire began.) Most of the Arabs west of the Jordan had moved to the West Bank and Gaza Strip (the latter was held by Egypt). Some of the Arabs had fled for their safety; others had left Israeli territory to make way for the invading armies; and still others had been pushed out by the Israeli army. Many of the Arabs in the West Bank eventually obtained Palestinian passports; Yassir Arafat, of course, was an Egyptian from Gaza. In the 1967 war, the surrounding countries attacked Israel again. In the end, Israel took over the West Bank, west Jerusalem, and Gaza to protect itself against any future attacks by Jordan and Egypt.

So, the only three entities that could possibly have sovereignty over the West Bank are Britain, Israel, and Jordan. England, of course, does not want to retake any possessions in the Middle East. Jordan does not want anything to do with the West Bank anymore because Palestinian terrorists nearly overthrew the monarchy in 1970. This leaves Israel.

The Palestinians, of course, could have a state in the future — but they have never had collective, sovereign authority over the West Bank in the past. As the European Union debates whether to recognize a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital, it is worth remembering this fact.

The Berlin Wall

I just watched a History Channel documentary on the night — 11 November 1989 — that the Berlin Wall fell. I was nine at the time. Here is a real-politik reflection on the event by Stratfor Global Analysis.

I was too young to understand the significance at the time, but I will always remember the event in hindsight as the start of millions of people gaining their freedom over the next several years, concluding with the fall of the Soviet Union. I would have given anything to be, like Tom Brokaw, a reporter at the scene. The closest I have ever been to a historically-significant event — regardless of how one feels about it personally — was when I covered the first same-sex marriage in Massachusetts when I was editor-in-chief of Spare Change News.

I will always prefer to associate 9/11 with the fall of the Berlin Wall — when written with European dating — rather than with the terrorist attacks in New York, which happened during my last semester of college. The most important historical event to occur in one’s lifetime should be something positive.

Nationality

In a prior post, I addressed the cultural nihilism in the United Kingdom that might be a result of the disappearance of a “British” identity (as opposed to “English,” “Welsh,” or “Scottish”). Now, after decades of immigration, the French government has unveiled a controversial “What is French?” website. I expect more of this to occur in the future.

Related: Death of the Nation-States and the The Future of the Nation-State

Tony Blair

The former British prime minister might not become the first president of Europe after all.

God is Back

Karen Armstrong writes in Foreign Policy that the so-called New Atheists are mistaken in their assumptions.

Cultural Nihilism

LONDON and JERUSALEM — The Daily Mail reports on efforts to change British drinking habits (and includes, of course, several tabloid-worthy pictures):

Such scenes are not uncommon, which is why Cardiff – one of the country’s worst cities for binge drinking – has just banned boozing on the streets.

The crackdown is aimed at late night revellers, targeting rowdy hen and stag parties and generally trying to make the streets safer after dark.

Police can use the new powers to confiscate alcohol or arrest anyone who defies them.

The ban has been a success in trials in small areas but will spread across the entire city in time for Christmas and the New Year.

Yesterday it was hailed as a big step towards ‘reclaiming the streets’ from drunken yobs.

Cardiff Central MP Jenny Willott said: ‘Late night alcohol-fuelled crime and anti-social behaviour is a huge problem on the streets.

‘People deserve to have a night out without the fear of intimidation or facing violence as a result of excessive alcohol consumption.

‘This ban should help the law-abiding and responsible majority to reclaim the streets.’

When I lived in London in 2001 and worked as a bartender at the Zetland Arms, I observed that British people drink a lot — a lot more than your average American. But it was still within reasonable limits. Every night, the regulars — a friendly-but-sad bunch — would arrive after work and drink pint after pint while watching sports. Then they would leave for home late at night and return the next evening.

Later in the evening, the young people would arrive. Since pubs had to close at 12:30 a.m., they would drink a lot and then move to a club or hang out on the streets. (It is legal to drink outside in counties including Britain and Israel.) But I rarely saw any problems. The closest I ever got was when I took the drink out of the hand of a drunken Scotsman because I was angry and he refused to leave at closing time. Luckily, the manager came over and calmed him down. (One lesson of bartending in London: If you want to befriend a Scotsman, mention the film “Braveheart” in a positive way.)

But, sadly, it seems that things have become much worse:

…the proportion of women who binge-drink almost doubled between 1998 and 2006 and is now at 15% (men who binge-drink increased by 1% to 23%). However, the proportion of 16- to 24-year-old men binge-drinking decreased by 9% since 2000. Researchers also found that whilst fewer children are drinking, those that do drink are drinking much more than they did in the past.

Violent crime by youths is also an increasing problem. If the reports are credible (I have not been to Britain since 2001), then English cities are dealing with mobs of drunken, violent youths every night.

If you want to see the future of a country, look at its young people. Great Britain, once known as the economic, cultural, and fashion capital of the world, seems to be crumbling. I first realized this when former British Prime Minister Tony Blair started giving speeches several years ago defending the very idea of the country itself.

The still-unanswered question facing Blair in the 1990s was: What does it mean to be “British” as opposed to “English,” “Welsh,” or “Scottish”? The United Kingdom is a political entity created through conquest that has rarely, if ever, had a collective sense of identity. Blair tried, unsuccessfully, to brand the country as “Cool Britannia.”

The British Empire collapsed after World War II, and the British people never quite recovered subconsciously as the United States, a former colony, became the new leader of the free world. Decades leader, the British people viewed Blair as George W. Bush’s lap dog in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. (In geopolitical terms, Blair could do little else.) It was a confirmation of the global humiliation that the British people have been feeling after centuries of power and influence had disappeared.

In recent years, Scotland and Wales formed their regional parliaments and became more autonomous. The current prime minister, Gordon Brown, is a Scot and now deeply unpopular. It is indeed possible that Great Britain will cease to exist in the coming years. As the country devolves, it might also lose sovereignty to the European Union and the euro.

Cultural divisions and economic conditions are also tearing the country apart. Decades of mass immigration have caused many Brits to feel that their country is no longer “British.” The most-popular, national food is now seen as chicken tikka masala rather than fish ‘n’ chips. (One former coworker here in Israel moved here even though he is not a Jew because he said that his country no longer exists.) Radical Muslims in Britain condemn democracy, want to impose Shari’a law, and have plotted terrorist attacks. Anti-Semitism is skyrocketing (see here and here). Young men are becoming more apathetic and willing to live with their parents as well as on the dole.

The most significant example of the negative feelings held by Britons was the recent inclusion of Nick Griffin, the leader of the far-right British National Party, on the political, panel-discussion show “Question Time.” Both journalism and the free-market are perfect bellwethers of cultural trends. Companies, even media ones, must tailor their products, services, and marketing pitches to pre-existing trends in society. Journalists, who ideally have their fingers on the pulses of people, decide which views are relevant to a the discussion of a given topic. When the BBC, the standard-bearer of British journalism, decides that a person like Griffin is suited to a serious political discussion, that is a clear indicator of what a significant segment of society is feeling.

In the theory of Alexander Fraser Tytler, Great Britain may be nearing towards the end of the life-cycle of all nations and empires as a result of all of these trends and feelings. With all of these cultural, political, and social problems in the subconscious minds of young people, is it any wonder that they seem to have lost hope in the future? Without any optimism, they turn to alcohol and violence out of nihilistic despair.

One of my favorite 1970s-era bands is the Moody Blues, and I think their following pop-rock song from 2000 is an apt description of British malaise:

We’re on a runaway train, rolling down the track / And where it’s take us to, who knows where it’s at / But if we hold together, we can make it back / For an English sunset

And I’ve decided I can live with humility / And the sad decay / ‘Cause that’s the English way

We keep the faith alive in every thing we do / And at the end of the line, we still keep coming through / And though it’s sad and sorry, what else can we do / It’s an English sunset

And I’ve decided they can wait for the requiem / And take it day by day / ‘Cause that’s the English way

As someone who has loved British culture since he was a child, I write this post with extreme sadness. Still, I fear that the same attitudes are affecting behavior in Israel, specifically in Jerusalem. As Jerusalem Post editor David Horovitz notes:

Anyone with more than passing knowledge of the atmosphere in central Jerusalem will be aware that the heart of our capital city is rapidly becoming a late night no-go zone.

Clusters of violent youth rule and roam the streets, armed with knives and with the beer and vodka bottles they’ve emptied, picking fights with unsuspecting victims.

Of course, the police are not solely to blame for the deepening climate of intimidation and violence. As [Public Security Minister Yitzhak] Aharonovitch and Israel Police Insp.-Gen. Dudi Cohen have frequently observed, ours is becoming an increasingly violent society, more and more kids are now carrying knives, and the response needs to be found, at least in part, in better parenting and better educational values.

I travel to Jerusalem several times a week, and I will likely be returning to live there soon. I was walking on the way to a pub with my girlfriend, a born-and-raised Jerusalemite, and we were speaking in English. A man on the street walked up and tried to convince us to come to his bar. (There are dozens of such people in the city center’s streets who try to get English-speaking tourists to visit their restaurant or bar.)

I waved him away and said, “We don’t need [your flier]” in Hebrew. His response? “Your accent sucks!” he yelled in English. I was about to walk over and return the favor when my girlfriend stopped me and said, “Do NOT talk like that here!” Unfortunately, people have been assaulted there for less.

As I have written in my Letters from Israel series, the Jewish state is rife with political, religious, and social divisions that many fear will tear the country apart. This has led to increased anti-social behavior and the possible destruction of the civil society that had developed since the refounding of Israel in 1948. Perhaps young Israelis have developed the same pessimism regarding the future that British youths now have.

As a result of the geographic isolation of the United States — it is separated from the world by two, gigantic oceans — the country is usually the last to receive cultural trends from Europe (as well as technological innovations from eastern Asia). Since young people there are increasing angry and frustrated over their economic and social conditions, I wonder whether the same anti-social behavior will occur in America soon.

Nobel Peace Prize

I supported Barack Obama for U.S. president (although I am becoming increasingly skeptical). But I must ask: What, exactly, has he done to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize?

Update: Politics aside, this clarification is what bothers me:

The five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee – four of whom spoke to The Associated Press, said awarding Obama the peace prize could be seen as an early vote of confidence intended to build global support for the policies of his young administration.

This is likely the first time that the committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for what a person may potentially do rather than what he has already done.

Dollar’s Demise

The U.S. dollar might be in serious trouble.

Update: The story might have been fake.

Modern Germany

Richard Cohen writes that Germany is regaining its self-confidence after decades of living in the shadow of World War II and the Holocaust: “This Germany is more nationalistic, more evenly poised between Washington and Moscow, cool to the point of disinterest about the European Union, self-absorbed and self-satisfied, dutiful but unenthused about the NATO alliance.”

Israel at the UN

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a logical, accurate, and passionate defense of Israel during a United Nations speech. One of the reasons I voted for him was that he speaks English fluently. This is one of the best speeches I have ever heard. If you are going to comment on this post, I ask that you watch all three clips first (they are short).

Stratfor Updates

For policy wonks and international-relations enthusiasts, Stratfor Global Intelligence is a political dream-come-true. I usually agree with their analyses, but they are still insightful when I do not. (Stratfor is a group of hard-core realists who sometimes discount the role that irrational ideology plays in the international arena.)

Here are the group’s reports from the last several weeks (sometimes these links go to advertisements before the actual content):

• The United States and Ballistic Missile Defense in Eastern Europe
• Misreading the Iranian Situation
• The Western View of Russia
• Libya: A Hero’s Welcome
• Obama’s Foreign Policy: The End of the Beginning
• Confidential Informants: A Double-Edged Sword
• Iraq Endgame

Enjoy!

Rosh Hashanah 2009/5770

RISHON LEZION, Israel — Benji Lovitt of the humorous blog “What War Zone?” takes a trip through the streets of Tel Aviv to interview Israelis on what they think of the Jewish New Year.

But do not be misled by the lightness of Lovitt’s video. As Israelis and Jews move into the year 5770, they are increasingly frustrated and anxious over recent events. Here are some headlines from just this past weekend:

• Iran reportedly has the ability to produce a nuclear bomb and is on the way to making a missile system that could deliver it.
• The Israeli government urgently warned Israelis in India that Islamic extremists are planning additional attacks there soon.
• Britain’s Trade Union Congress is calling for a boycott of Israeli goods.
• Iran is increasing its control over Hizbollah, the Islamist group in southern Lebanon.
• The Jerusalem Post remembers Capt. Assaf Ramon, who died recently in a military plane crash. His father was the first Israeli astronaut, and he died in the Columbia space shuttle explosion.
• IDF Brigadier General Avichai Mandelblit talks to the Post about defending Israel from international, legal criticism of the military’s conduct during the recent war in Gaza. The United States has said that a UN report on the issue was “unbalanced.”
• A United Nations conference condemned Israel’s atomic program.
• Jewish celebrities including Natalie Portman, Sacha Baron Cohen, Lisa Kudrow and Jerry Seinfeld are defending the Toronto Film Festival’s decision to spotlight Tel Aviv.
• There is still rioting in Jerusalem over the opening of a parking lot on the Sabbath.

But not all of the news is bad. (Besides, many Jews at Rosh Hashanah dinners over the holiday likely told the centuries-old joke with a shrug: “They tried to kill us, we won, let’s eat!”) Here is a collection of optimistic, inspiring, or light-hearted tidbits from the weekend papers.

• Israel and the United States are working together to prepare for “every possible scenario.”
• Amotz Asa-El commends Bank of Israeli Governor Stanley Fischer for saving Israeli from the worst of the worldwide recession and making the country one of the first to bounce back.

• The Jerusalem Post profiles twelve young Israelis for their contributions in areas ranging from the arts to sports to government to music.

• Herb Keinon interviews soldiers like Isabella Fhima, a 21-year-old, Moroccan Jew, who came to Israel by herself to join the army because she believes in the country. I know many lone soliders from all over the world, and each one deserves a feature in a national newspaper.

As for me, I’ve been listening to a recent pop song by the Israeli artist Sarit Hadad (in English) to get away from the headlines:

Although I generally hate pop music, I have to admit that this song is infectious and sunny. As non-Hebrew speakers can probably understand the video, the words are about running away from life’s stress for a short while and running to the beach. The summer is on its way out here, so we only have a few weeks left to do that.

Eight Years Later

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, occurred eight years ago. Here are my two posts on the causes and significance of the event. I was a senior in college in Boston at the time, but these reflections were written several years later.

Pat Buchanan

The conservative pundit wonders whether the United States is falling apart. My thoughts are here.

Leading, Lagging Indicators

The U.S. unemployment rate has inched closer to ten percent, but as one analyst notes, there are signs that the worst might be over soon:

The continued moderation in the pace of job losses does offer some encouragement on the state of the U.S. labor market. Nevertheless, with the soft economic backdrop, we are likely to see further job losses in the coming months as U.S. businesses continue to adjust their payrolls in the face of weak demand, which will likely limit the extent to which consumer spending can be depended upon to power the eventual recovery. It is important to note, however, that the labor market is generally a lagging indicator of economic activity…

What do all of these numbers mean? Well, let’s first remind ourselves of the severity of the current recession:

The ease of the slope of the line denoting the current recession along with the decrease in the rate of unemployment increase mean one simple fact: The economy is still getting worse, but it is doing so at an increasingly-slower rate. Barring any unforeseen problems (or miracles), this hints that the recession its approaching its nadir. We are almost halfway there.

If that sounds terribly optimistic, keep in mind that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Labor is the first cost that employers cut when a recession looms, and it is the last cost that companies incur when a recovery begins. The reason is simple: Labor is frequently the most-expensive capital that a business has, so people are the first fat to be trimmed and the last to be added. (This is bad news for families, but this is how a free market works.)

Now, let’s look at a leading indicator:

The manufacturing sector has, at least for the moment, returned to pre-recession levels. Good news, right? Well, only partially. Factories are producing more goods, but someone has to buy them. Right now, the American consumer is still saving rather than spending money to ease the debt bubble. This does not bode well for an economy that is two-thirds dependent on people buying stuff — otherwise termed “consumer spending.”

In the meantime, Israel and Japan have been the first countries to emerge from their respective recessions. France and Germany, Europe’s two-largest economies, followed suit. China and India never fell into recessions, although their rates of growth declined.

What can Americans make of this? Well, people who work in export-driven industries should be happy. U.S. manufacturing is increasing as consumers in many parts of the world are finally able to buy. A weakening dollar will help. But the vast majority of the American economy — consumer spending and the service industries — will be slow to recover.

Weekend News Roundup

The Jerusalem Post has an interesting feature on the effect that ultra-Orthodox Jews have on neighborhoods when they move into them. In an effort to combat assimilation among American Jews, the Israeli government and Jewish Agency are airing television commercials encouraging Israelis to convice friends and family there to take extended trips to Israel. Caroline Glick argues that Iran is months away from having nuclear weapons. Madonna ends her world tour in Tel Aviv, meets Israeli politicians, is nice to a Jerusalem waitress, wraps an Israeli flag around herself on stage, and faces criticism from Palestinians. Bradley Burston hopes that the Jewish New Year will bring an end to extremist, unrealistic idealism on the far left and right. Sarah Honig argues that the main conflict in the peace process is not Israeli settlements but the refusal of Arabs and Palestinians to recognize the right of the Jewish state to exist. Amotz Asa-El wonders whether the United States is truly in decline. The White House criticized Israel for building additional settlements before a negotiated freeze begins.

Don’t Buy Into Apartheid?

RISHON LEZION, Israel — For the record, I hate extremists of any kind. For every scare-mongering conservative like Glenn Beck, there is a group of useful idiots like the left-wingers in this video.

It seems that June 20 was National Don’t Buy Into Apartheid Day. (Do they make Hallmark cards for that?) A group of aging hippies and a few young wannabees walked into a Trader Joe’s store in San Francisco, started removing all Israeli-made products from the shelves, labeled them with stickers, asked the manager to stop selling them, and tried to convince customers not to purchase them.

My favorite part is the look on the manager’s face when they talk to him. You can just tell that he wants to laugh and say: “Are you f—— crazy?” But to his credit, he kept his composure and did his best not to anger a few crazy customers. I would have done something that would have resulted in a quick firing.

Just a couple of points that are probably obvious:

• Many people who work in low-paid, blue-collar jobs like food-packing in Israel are Arab Israelis and Palestinians. If activist groups decrease demand for these products, they will hurt the people they are supposedly trying to help. But don’t let the facts get in the way of a feel-good act of symbolism that actually does nothing.
• Thriving economies create peace. Countries and peoples that are economically intertwined are far less likely to wage war against each other. One of the best ways to help the Palestinians — whether they will have a state or not — is to help business in the Gaza Strip, Israel proper, and the West Bank. These activists specifically want to target products from the West Bank despite the fact that food produced there, even on settlements, most likely involved capital or labor from Palestinians. Buy more of it! Give them jobs.
• Focus on things that matter. If you want to help the Palestinians, volunteer with or contribute to groups that address abuse by the Israeli Defense Forces (sadly, some individual soldiers do reprehensible things in isolated cases but not as a result of official, military policy); fight in the Israeli Supreme Court for the rule of law in the Occupied Territories rather than the rule of force by settlers; or do other similar actions. Don’t do meaningless, token gestures that just make you look stupid.

On a related note, similar incidents have occurred in France — but with more-sinister results:

One Saturday afternoon a few weeks ago, a group wearing “BOYCOTT ISRAEL” T-shirts entered a French branch of Carrefour, the world’s largest supermarket chain, and announced themselves. They then systematically advanced down every aisle examining every product, seizing all the items made in Israel and piling them into carts to take away and destroy. Judging from the video they made, the protesters were mostly Muslim immigrants and a few French leftists. But more relevant was the passivity of everyone else in the store, both staff and shoppers, all of whom stood idly by as private property was ransacked and smashed, and many of whom when invited to comment expressed support for the destruction. “South Africa started to shake once all countries started to boycott their products,” one elderly lady customer said. “So what you’re doing, I find it good.”

As a supporter of Israel, free markets, and civil liberties, I find this story to be absolutely repugnant. These activists stole and destroyed private property. They had the gumption to decide for themselves what consumers should be allowed to purchase. They were misguided enough to focus only on Israel rather than countries — like, say, China and Iran — whose records of human-rights abuses are among the worst in the world. (Then again, if a group removed everything made in China in many stores, I think nothing would be left.)

The fact that the customers in the store did nothing — and a few even supported the action — is downright scary. It may be a cliche, but it is true: Evil (or a useful idiot) triumphs when good men do nothing. If I had been in the French store, I would have grabbed the nearest blunt object I could find and smashed their video camera. Et ce serait fini.

And that reminds me of a final question: Did the San Francisco activists do what the French ones did? The video does not say. Did they steal the products from the store, pay for and take them, or leave the items on the shelves with the stickers? This inquiring mind wants to know. If it is the first or last, they should be arrested and charged with theft or vandalism; if it is the second, then they are extremely stupid because any purchase, no matter from whom, helps the Israeli companies.

(Hat tip: Jewlicious)

Tony Blair

The former British prime minister may become the first president of Europe. Charlemagne, a columnist for the Economist, writes that many people are unhappy with that prospect.

Men Living at Home

RISHON LEZION, Israel — One-third of British men under forty are reportedly living with parents:

Cost was the main factor for 59 per cent of them, but 57 per cent of women and 16 per cent of men also admitted that they liked being looked after by mum. Another 11 per cent of men said they would miss their parents too much if they left.

A lucky 56 per cent of adults who live at home get their meals cooked for them, while 55 per cent admitted that mum still does their washing.

Eighteen per cent even had their packed lunch made for them every morning.

With such pampering, many have no intention of leaving any time soon.

Nineteen per cent said they would stay until they became fed up with their parents and another 30 per cent intended to stay at home until they wanted to move in with a boyfriend or girlfriend.

One of the differences I have noticed between Israel and the United States is the attitude that people have towards living with families. Israel is a more-traditional country that places a great emphasis on family, but America has always been an individualistic country whose society has always encouraged people to leave home early and make something of themselves. In Israel, living with parents is common; in the United States, it is a sign of failure.

Nearly every twentysomething person I know — male or female — in here lives with his or her parents. The reasons are numerous. Wages are typically lower here. Minimum wage for a full-time job is the equivalent of $5.50 an hour, and even educated, non-management workers in the high-tech industry earn the equivalent of $2,000 a month before taxes. These lower wages come with higher taxes than in the United States to fund the country’s universal health-care system, and big-ticket items such as rent, electronics, and clothing can cost as much in in America as well.

In addition, those Israelis who do go to college take longer to finish their degrees. Nearly everyone serves in the military after high school until the age of twenty (for women) and twenty-one (for men). Then most people spend a year or more traveling throughout the world before settling down back in Israel. So they start college at twenty-two or later. Moreover, most Israelis study part-time while working full-time. Unlike Americans, Israelis do not want to take on student-loan debt — so they pay for it themselves through working and living at home. As a result of all these reasons, young people do not live on their own.

It is very likely that this phenomenon will spread to the Western world, at least for men, as well. First of all, more men then women are suffering as a result of the ongoing economic turmoil. Fields such as education, health-care, non-profit, and government — those that tend to attract women — are not as affected by the financial collapse as the fields of manufacturing, finance, and business — those that tend to attract men. Fewer men are going to college as well.

Although the reason for this societal change is negative, I think the end result might be beneficial for the West. Much of the problems that plague modern, American society stem from extreme individualism. More men and women are choosing to live a single life of purported fun rather than get married. Men are choosing to live in a “Guyland” of immature hedonism rather than act responsibly. Part of the reason for the economic turmoil is the selfish desire of finance managers to earn as much obscene profit as possible regardless of the risk to their firms and society as a whole. Middle-aged Americans put their parents in nursing homes rather than take care of them as people throughout the non-Western world do. In an extreme example, customers at an Indiana convenience store ignored a clerk who had been shot in a robbery and continued to shop rather than help him.

In such an environment, the United States should welcome a return to family and closeness rather than individual success at any cost.

Peter Pan, Meet Harry Potter

The New York Times reports that the children who grew up reading the “Harry Potter” books are now graduating college and entering the workforce:

Indie rock bands have sprung up inspired by their obsession, with names like Harry and the Potters, the Half Bloods, and Voldie and the Wiz Kidz, playing songs inspired by Potter lore.

Last fall, teams from Princeton, Vassar, Boston University [my alma mater!] and a dozen other schools competed in the Quidditch World Cup, in which students play a real-life version of the soccer-like contact sport featured in the books and films. (They can’t fly, but still compete with brooms between their legs.)

The continuing pull of all things Potter is a testament to the franchise’s enduring sway. But it also seems like something else: the advent of Generation Y nostalgia.

Chronologically, I am sandwiched between Generations X and Y since I was born in 1980. As a result, I came to “Harry Potter” later than most people. I was living in London and interning for a magazine in the summer of 2001, and I decided to pick up the first book to see what all the fuss was about. I never looked back. (I discovered later that the American books had been changed slightly — “mum” became “mom” and “lorries” became “trucks.” I guess the publisher decided that children are too stupid to learn words from other countries.) I am excited that the latest film adaptation should be coming to Israel soon.

Still, the Times notes an interesting aspect behind Pottermania:

Even though nostalgia hits every generation, it seems awfully early for 28-year-olds to be looking back. One possible explanation, say authors who focus on generational identity, is the impact of the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The political and economic climate of the late ’90s had been as soothing as a Backstreet Boys ballad: no wars, unemployment as low as 4 percent, a $120 billion federal surplus.

Neil Howe, an author of several books on what he calls the Millennials (another term for Gen Y), draws a parallel between this nostalgic wave and the one boomers embraced with the film “American Graffiti” in 1973. That movie depicted the recent past, the early ’60s, which seemed to have vanished forever.

“It’s instant nostalgia before a huge change in the nation’s mood,” Mr. Howe said. “ ‘American Graffiti’ was nostalgia for the boomers for a world before everything changed after J.F.K.’s assassination.

“Millennials see the world before Sept. 11 as a period of innocence. Our biggest worry was the Y2K bug. That all seems a world away now.”

I completely understand. An uncle of mine always told me that college would be the best years of my life, and I am afraid that he might have been correct. I entered college in 1998 — close to the height of the dot-com craze and the Nasdaq. The world looked to be my generation’s digital oyster.

And then, September 11 occurred four months before I graduated in January 2002. I entered the journalism world after the dot-com bubble had burst and newspapers were starting their downward trajectories. Along with everyone else my age, I was burdened by crushing debt from student loans and credit cards at a time when decent job prospects looked — and still look — incredibly remote. And then came the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the re-election of one of the worst presidents in modern times, the housing-bubble collapse, and the current financial meltdown.

I could use a nice game of Quidditch. “Harry Potter” was the last pop-culture sensation that I experienced before my college-student dreams and optimistic outlook were shattered.

Related: Why My Generation is Pissed Off

Death of Nation-States

Coming Anarchy offers a hypothetical map of how Europe may look in ten years:

Even if only a few of these microstates were to be born, it could have serious consequences regionally, transatlantically and globally. In Europe, it would suddenly create a host of rich and poor states, which their previous host states balanced out. Northern Germany will get poorer and the two southern states stay very rich for example. Over time, the lack of wealth transfer from southern to northern Germany, or from northern to southern Italy will likely create less developed and poorer states within Europe no longer able to stay afloat. As an Italian friend once joked, without the north, southern Italy would turn into a Catholic Pakistan. As reader DJ noted, now more than ever, regions of today’s states are trying to maximize the economic benefits of globalization while minimizing the social costs, leading to richer regions breaking from poorer ones.

So what will independence look like? It won’t have the same meaning that we think of today. At the local level, these newly minted states will enjoy previously unparalleled independence, flexibility and likely prosperity. However, at the same time, they will be subservient to the European Union on international matters such as defense, some foreign policy, trade agreements, transportation and environmental issues. Also and perhaps most importantly, a credible Europe wide defense would have to exist to make the creation of new states viable.

As I have noted in prior posts here, here, and here, the nation-state is dying a slow death as the two forces of globalization and localization pull it in opposite directions. The intertwining of all countries’ economies necessitates that all nation-states work with each other, and another result is that all governments can fall victim to forces beyond their control as well. The Internet is also creating an infinite number of niche markets and communities within societies worldwide through the mass-segmentation of the cultural market. Mass immigration — Latin Americans into the United States as well as Arabs and eastern Europeans into western Europe are two prominent examples — is changing the ethnic characters of nation-states as well. France is becoming less “French,” and the United States is becoming less “white” and Protestant.

As one example, the United States — a country that was never entirely a nation since its population has always been comprised of people from various ethnic groups — is slowing being ripped apart on religious, ethnic, and political lines. People who are conservative and Christian get their news from Fox News and other right-wing outlets; liberals and others watch MSNBC and read The New York Times. Two collective groups of people are creating entirely different mindsets and worldviews based on the specific media each group consumes. Texans denigrate Bostonians as intellectual, liberal elitists; Bostonians view Texans as gun-touting, evolution-denying extremists. Is such a cultural situation tenable? If Coming Anarchy is correct about Europe, then the United States might follow in the continent’s footsteps.

Update: A commenter, Jeff, asks a question that I should have answered earlier: “Clearly, you think this half-millennium old system is about to die, but what do you THINK about that?”

Well, I have several thoughts. The first is the present international order of large, complex nation-states is giving way to a globalized world consisting of hundreds of small, ethnic republics or regions. Think of the planet as becoming a gigantic, patchwork quilt.

On an idealistic level, this is something beneficial. People have a subconscious desire to live among those similar to them (cities, for example, self-segregate themselves into ethnic neighborhoods), and they want the right to choose to do so. Russia is a perfect example. The country is comprised of dozens of ethnic peoples essentially held together by force — first by the czars, and then by the communist dictatorship. When Russia breaks apart — and its demographic decline is a accurate precursor — the people in the resulting republics will be much happier, and life will be more free. The same holds true for the Basques in France and Spain as well as other peoples elsewhere. Liberal nation-states always champion the freedom of democracy enjoyed by their citizens — as long as some do not want to use that right to demand a country of their own.

So, in the end, such a devolution will be beneficial. But the path there is fraught with danger and instability. Nation-states, like people and corporations, are individual entities writ large that place a primary emphasis on self-preservation. The United States had a civil war when several states wanted to secede. Russia uses force to keep a death-grip on Chechnya while the far-flung eastern part is increasingly under the influence of China. The United Kingdom does not want Scotland or Wales to become independent from England even though no one can explain what it means to be “British” any longer. Modern-day Iran consists of several peoples who were united by the sword of the ancient Persian empire. Israelis, after more than sixty years of independence, are intensely divided and cannot reconcile their three competing desires to be a Jewish state, a democratic state, and a state in all of so-called Greater Israel. (I would not be entirely surprised if the the county ends up dividing itself into a secular and religious republics in forthcoming decades — though this would eerily resemble biblical history repeating itself.) All of these countries are facing crises of identity, and many may not survive as they currently exist.

A globalized order consisting of a patchwork quilt of ethnic enclaves may lead to greater peace and prosperity — why, after all, would Wales go to war with England to conquer territory that was not Welsh — but the path to that end will be very unstable as complex nation-states fight a doomed battle to save themselves.

Building on one of my favorite subjects, devolution, the decline of the state and the proliferation of microstates, I’ve put together a map of the future of Europe in 2020. It is purely speculative and in no way a firm prediction, but rather a sketch of the possibilities and list of the most likely cases. It is by no means exhaustive and you’ll notice seemingly obvious states such as Wales, Sicily, Crete and others are not listed. This is in part because I will argue that two local conditions are necessary for a viable movement and successful independence.

Iranian Pot, Meet Kettle

I wonder if the Iranian officials said these statements with a straight face:

Iran summons the Italian Ambassador to Tehran Alberto Bradanini in protest against the violent suppression of anti-G8 protesters.

Bradanini was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Friday to hear Tehran’s concerns about the “violent suppression of justice-seeking protesters by the Italian police.”

A Foreign Ministry statement included Iran’s “strong condemnation” of the “suppressive actions…which are clear breaches of civil freedoms and fundamentals of democracy.”

Iran’s police and security militias violently suppressed justice-seeking protesters there. Iran routinely breaches the civil freedoms of its people, and the country is a sham demomocracy.